Elaboration of a methodology for a rapid expert consensus development and quantification: the fast-track Delphi process

Delphi surveys follow a structured process for aggregating the knowledge and opinions of a panel of experts, in order to build and quantify a consensus on a specific topic. However, this model is not suited to crisis contexts such as the one we experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, when a consensus needs to be reached rapidly in order to support as far as possible a rapid and informed political decision.

We developed a hybrid ‘fast-track’ methodology, combining aspects of the nominal group technique and the conventional Delphi approach: the process consists of a group session (step 1) followed by two series of electronic questionnaires (steps 2 and 3), which enable consensus agreements to be reached between experts within two to three weeks. We also developed a toolbox to overcome the constraints associated with the need for rapidity in the process.

This process was examined by methodological experts, then tested on a current issue in the field of tobacco control (the regulation of ‘puffs’, i.e. disposable electronic cigarettes), using the ad hoc technical tools developed as part of the project.